Vancouver’s Financial Edge: Easy Money Strategies In Forex Trading And Mining – Canadian Housing Gets a Salute Falling home prices have been hard on Canadian households, but they’re necessary, healthy and prices are likely to hold, experts say.
Is Canadian housing headed for a crash, or is that what the news reports are leading us to believe? No way.
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In Vancouver’s recently overheated housing market, home sales are down 45.5%, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV). Disturbing at first glance, the news is based on the composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver, which is currently $1,148,900, representing a “2.1 percent increase from October 2021, a 9.2 percent increase.” percent in the last six months and decreased by 0.6 percent compared to September 2022,” the REBGV report said.
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The Royal Bank of Canada also issued a worrying article saying “Canada’s net worth is falling at the fastest pace in decades.” The bank expects $900 billion in wealth losses and $1.6 trillion in net wealth losses in the coming quarters as housing markets shrink due to rising interest rates and weakening financial markets. Still, RBC offers some perspective: Canadians have amassed $3.9 trillion in net wealth during the pandemic. So if the bank’s predictions are correct, when the dust settles, household wealth will still be around $2.3 trillion ahead.
“We clearly have a significant slowdown,” says Jean-Francois Perrault, chief economist and first vice-president of the National Bank of Canada. “We have seen a relatively significant drop in prices: 10% to 15% compared to February 2022,” he continued. And we expect an overall reduction of 20% to 25%.”
True, it is difficult, but not terrible. If such a cut occurs, “we’ll still be at the mid-2021 price level,” Perrault adds, a time many consider prices too high. The decline comes at a time when “affordability is tight and home prices are rising faster than wages,” noted Brian Bernard, director of Industrial Capital Research.
In the U.S., where the housing market isn’t as hot as Canada’s, Bernard sees a correction that won’t be more severe than 8% by 2025. “If rates fall to 4.5%, affordability may return in the long run. average,” he says. In Canada, the NBC housing affordability index rose 123 basis points in the second quarter of 2022, raising mortgage payments by 14.4%, or $500 per month. But the NBC note now predicts that a 10% drop in home prices and stabilization of the benchmark 5-year mortgage rate “should improve affordability by the end of the year.”
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“Current rate corrections are necessary and useful,” Perrault believes, “If an interest rate-sensitive sector like housing doesn’t respond to rate hikes, that means the Bank of Canada will have to raise them even higher!” »
On the one hand, lower prices improve housing affordability, but on the other hand, homeowners shouldn’t worry that their home values are in free fall. Because prices depend on several important factors. First, Canada, as well as Canada, has a persistent housing shortage in the U.S. Perrault estimated it at 1.8 million a year ago, while the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation puts the deficit at 3.5 million. In the US, Bernard estimates a shortfall of 3 million units, but some put it at 5 million.
Again, this is a challenge for home seekers who are satisfied with higher prices, but from the homeowners’ side, “I would say it supports price stability,” says Bernard.
Another factor driving up home prices is the strong influx of immigrants that Ottawa is looking to boost to an unprecedented 1.5 million over the next three years. Some experts believe that such an influx will not affect house prices for several years. “My guess is that most new immigrants don’t have the cash or savings to buy a home,” says Murtaza Haider, director of the Institute for Urban Analysis at Toronto Metropolitan University. “I don’t expect them to put as much pressure on housing prices, he continued, but more on rental demand.” He believes that “it takes about two to three years for new immigrants to become active in the property cycle.”
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As Perrault Haider said, he acknowledges that new immigrants won’t affect the ownership cycle for two to three years, but believes that renting them will still affect prices. “Whether newcomers want to buy or rent, nothing will change,” he says.
Also, the default rate “is very low, even falling, at all banks,” Perrault adds. Sure, people pay more for mortgages, but it hasn’t translated into more defaults. “It’s part of the mortgage requirements that make sure people can pay off their mortgage,” he says.
Finally, an even more important factor supporting home prices is a very strong job market. “As long as that doesn’t change,” says Perrault, “we can assume prices will hold.”
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Ian Barceló A veteran financial and economic journalist with over 30 years of experience, Ian writes for numerous publications in Toronto and Montreal, including
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